European Championship tips and odds
Our betting expert has three Ukraine vs Italy tips for the European Championship Group C qualifier on Monday (kick-off, 7.45pm GMT). Scroll down to see the analysis behind his selections.
Ukraine vs Italy betting tips
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
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Italy to get the job done
Winner takes all in Leverkusen this evening as Ukraine and Italy meet to decide who will join Group C winners England in returning automatically to Germany for Euro 2024 next summer.
The Azzurri are second in the group, so they can afford to draw and still advance, while nothing less than a win will do for Ukraine.
Italy won the reverse fixture 2-1 and were good value for that victory, having 24 attempts on goal to Ukraine’s nine and 63.9 per cent of possession.
With the onus on Ukraine to attack that could open the door for the reigning champions. They are unbeaten in nine matches against Ukraine – winning seven – and we expect them to win tonight.
Ukraine vs Italy tip 1: Italy to win @ 3/4 with BetMGM
Slow burner on the cards
With so much at stake, this promises to be a cagey contest. In three of the previous seven matches between these nations, it has been all square at the interval.
Ukraine were level at the break against England in September and they can achieve the same feat here, but it may be a different story after that.
Italy have scored 16 times in seven matches in Group C and seven of those goals have come in the second half of those fixtures.
They have also won four of their last six matches in all competitions and we can see them turning a half-time draw into a victory in the second period.
Ukraine vs Italy tip 2: HT/FT – Draw/Italy @ 18/5 with BetMGM
Ukraine to test holders
Ukraine won’t be easy opponents for Italy and they will be keen on getting shots away, knowing that they need the three points to advance.
They are averaging 10.6 shots per game in qualifying and had nine when they visited Italy in September, but with qualification on the line here we’re expecting that to increase.
Mykhailo Mudryk and Artem Dovbyk average two and 1.4 shots per game in qualifying respectively, while Italy have failed to keep a clean sheet in six of their past seven matches in all competitions.
We’re opting for Ukraine to test the Italian backline and have over 10.5 shots this evening when the two teams meet in Leverkusen.
Ukraine vs Italy tip 3: Ukraine over 10.5 shots @ 9/10 with BetMGM
Ukraine vs Italy odds
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Ukraine team news
Chelsea’s Mudryk is expected to start and should provide a key threat for the nation desperate for the win. He and Dovbyk both scored in the recent win over Malta.
Ukraine predicted line-up (4-2-3-1): Trubin; Karavaev, Zabarnyi, Matvienko, Mykolenko; Sydorchuk, Zinchenko; Konoplya, Sudakov, Mudryk; Dovbyk.
Italy team news
Federico Chiesa scored twice last time out and he’s likely to keep his place on the left with Jorginho holding the fort in midfield.
Italy predicted line-up (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Darmian, Gatti, Acerbi, Dimarco; Barella, Jorginho, Bonaventura; Berardi, Raspadori, Chiesa.
Last five results
Ukraine
Nov 16 FR Lechia Gdansk 0 Ukraine 2 W
Oct 17 EC Malta 1 Ukraine 3 W
Oct 14 EC Ukraine 2 N Macedonia 0 W
Sep 12 EC Italy 2 Ukraine 1 L
Sep 9 EC Ukraine 1 England 1 D
Italy
Nov 17 EC Italy 5 N Macedonia 2 W
Oct 17 EC England 3 Italy 1 L
Oct 14 EC Italy 4 Malta 0 W
Sep 12 EC Italy 2 Ukraine 1 W
Sep 9 EC N Macedonia 1 Italy 1 D
EC European Championship qualifying FR Friendly
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